Al Shabaab Without Godane is Still a Big & Even More Dangerous Threat!

When the United States Government confirmed that Ahmed Abdi Godane, the former ruthless leader of Al Shabaab; a surrogate of Al Qaeda in Eastern Africa had been killed in an air strike on the militant’s base on 1^st September 2014, authorities in Kenya reacted to the announcement from Pentagon with glee. President Uhuru Kenyatta was quick to point out that the death of Godane would provide some “form of closure” for the victims of the September 21^st 2013 terrorist attack on Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi.

Abdi Ahmed Godane, former Al Shabaab leader

Godane masterminded the gruesome attack which left 70 people including a relative of President Kenyatta dead and hundreds maimed. However, the death of Godane does not in any way indicate the end of Al Shabaab or a reduction of its extremist agenda and murderous activities in the region. If anything, his killing has created new targets for the militants complicating an already delicate security situation in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti and Burundi; all front-line countries which have contributed troops to the African Union (AU) Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).

Al Shabaab has threatened and considers all United Nations (UN), European Union (UN) and US installations, allied companies and organizations operating in Eastern Africa and in particular in AMISOM troop-contributing countries as legitimate targets. Whereas AMISOM and in particular Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) operating in the southern Somalia have considerably reduced the activities of Al Shabaab they are yet to extinguish the militants. When KDF troops dramatically entered Kismayu in September, 2012 in an amphibious landing formation, the militants did not engage them in battle or offer any serious resistance. Instead, the militia abandoned post and fizzled into the civilian population. Thus the dislodgment of Al Shabaab from Kismayu and their other strongholds in Southern Somalia was essentially a dispersal of combatants from active combat and effective command without proper demobilization.

Remains of vehicles destroyed by militants outside of Mpeketoni

These combatants may have joined other groups loosely allied to or with similar ideology to Al Shabaab. Individual militants or small groups thereof may in fact be responsible for the sporadic deadly attacks attributed to Al Shabaab in several locations in East Africa. Battle hardened militants without a central command are bound to act erratically and in isolation due to frustration. They prefer soft targets where they can inflict maximum pain and damage with low risk of contact with conventional forces. The recent violence in Lamu which left over 100 people dead and the isolated fatal attacks on tourists and security officers in Mombasa and neighbouring coastal towns should be seen in this light.

West-gate ruins after the Al Shabaab attack in September

 

Al Shabaab still controls a large part of Somalia. The AMISOM; U.S. and European Union forces (EUFOR) operating in the Eastern Coast and Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden have not been able to dislodge the militants from many of their strongholds. The extremists still hold vital grounds of tactical importance inside and along the coast of Somalia. The fledgling government in Mogadishu is also too weak to effectively deal with remnants of Al Shabaab in urban and rural civilian settlements. There is still a sizeable population of the Somali people who actively support the militia and believe in their ideology. The militia cannot thrive without such support. The death of Godane has not changed this. It is only but a temporary setback to Al Shabaab. He has been replaced by another extremist Sheikh Ahmad Umar (Abu Ubaidah). There is no vacuum in command and their violent activities have continued inside Somalia. The new leadership will now be more cautious and ruthless. The extremists are angry that their leader has been killed and they will seek to avenge his death. As long as Al Shabaab continues to enjoy some form of support from sections of the Somali population, it will definitely carry out revenge attacks on soft targets inside Somalia and neighbouring countries.

Nairobi City Skyline

All citizens and security agencies of Eastern Africa should be alive to this fact. Kenya which has a long and largely unmanned frontier with Somalia and easily corruptible immigration; border control and security officers is the most susceptible to revenge attacks. Al Shabaab has constantly threatened to bring down the symbols of capitalism; skyscrapers and shopping malls in Kenya. This calls for heightened surveillance in all densely populated cities in Kenya and neighbouring countries which host institutions and installations associated with the USA, UN and the EU. One hopes that security agencies in the region will not be caught napping!

Twitter: @DeCaptainCFE

KENYAN CASES AT THE HAGUE: ICC & ICTR; History is Repeating itself

In 1998 I was working with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR), Branch Office; Nairobi, as an Assistant Protection Officer. At the time UNHCR-BO, Nairobi was screening asylum seekers from Rwanda, Burundi, Congo DRC, Uganda, Southern Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea to determine if they deserved protection as refugees under the 1951 Geneva Convention and the 1969 OAU Convention. Asylum seekers from Somalia & Southern Sudanese automatically qualified to be admitted as refugees under the 1969 OAU Convention. The complex cases were from Ethiopia and Rwanda where serious atrocities had preceded the violent change of governments and it was not easy distinguishing victims from the perpetrators of atrocities which led people to flee to Kenya. The United Nations had in November 1994 established the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha to try the perpetrators of Genocide which had occurred in Rwanda between January and December 1994. 

UN Secretary General Ban Kii Moon addressing ICTR

 

In 1999, the UNHCR in conjunction with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) decided to bring to a close the issues of legitimacy and eligibility for refugees from Rwanda, Burundi and Congo DRC. The UNHCR and OCHA launched the Great Lakes Operation (GLO) in Nairobi and hired Eligibility Officers whose task was inter alia, registration of urban refugees; their families and unaccompanied minors as well conducting interviews to document their for flight. For Rwandese caseload the Eligibility Officers were also required to identify any direct perpetrators, accomplices, financiers and potential witnesses of the genocide and crimes against humanity which had occurred in that country between January and December 1999. Identities and reports of any such people were to be shared with a Liaison Officer in the Office of the Registrar, ICTR, Arusha.

The Registrar of the ICTR and his staff visited Nairobi to explain to the Eligibility Officers what exactly they were required to do if they positively identified suspects and potential witnesses of genocide and other crimes committed in Rwanda. They explained that although ICTR had strict timelines within which to end their investigations and try the suspects, the timelines could be extended depending on how much information we gathered and the evidential accounts we documented. During a break, one staffer told us (jokingly) that we should collect as much information as possible; document every account with some sort of “evidence” and not “rush” the process because any rush would lead to the disbandment of ICT and GLO; loss of prestigious jobs and hefty perks we were enjoying from the UN! We laughed at the joke but we got the message. To many ICTR staff in Arusha the tribunal was not just about justice for the victims of genocide, but about jobs and hefty salaries. The evidential value of the accounts we recorded did not matter so much either. GLO officers documented credible horrendous accounts from the victims of the genocide (possible witnesses) and identities, locations and family relations of some perpetrators who were living in Kenyan and Tanzanian Cities but the Registrar’s Office never acted on them. In fact some of the suspects we identified in Nairobi were able to relocate to West Africa, Belgium and France while ICTR was sitting pretty at Arusha. This is one reason the Government of Rwanda has very unkind words for the ICTR which 20 years down the line is yet to complete the cases before it. The tribunal has failed to meet its 2008 and 2012 deadlines set by the UN Security Council; it has completed only 50 trials with 29 convictions, still has 11 on-going trials and 14 pending trials. The UN has set a new December 31, 2014 deadline but you can bet it won’t be met either. All because of money! Yes, Judges, the Prosecutor and the Registrar cannot “rush” the process and kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

ICC

Currently, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is seized of two cases from Kenya. The Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) has severally admitted that they do not have any evidence to commence the trial against President Uhuru Kenyatta. In the case against Deputy President William Ruto and Mr. Joshua Arap Sang, the OTP is unable to progress its case since some of the witnesses have withdrawn and admitted having lied to the court. Just like in the case of ICTR, these witnesses and evidential accounts were procured through intermediaries. But the OTP and the Judges do not want to end the circus and focus their energies to much more serious situations in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq. The whole charade clearly portrays ICC as a political, neo-colonial and racist court which is only fit to try Africans and other racial undesirables.

Deputy President & Joshua Arap Sang in court

The OTP, the Office of the Registrar and Judges know that if they bring the two Kenyan cases to a close, they will become jobless! So, it does not matter to them whether there is evidence against President Kenyatta and his Deputy Ruto, the cases will be kept pending for as long as possible. That is international “justice” for you. It is not and was never about justice for the victims or accountability for perpetrators of crime, but about prestige and hefty perks for the lawyers; Judges, Prosecutors and intermediaries contracted to gather "evidence"!  

 

Twitter: @DeCaptainCFE

CENTRAL/MT. KENYA LEGISLATORS ARE INACCESSIBLE & POOR PERFORMERS!

Mt. Kenya

It is not easy to like Kenyan politicians. All of them; irrespective of party, ethnic, religious or racial affiliation, are irredeemable bloodsuckers who neither care for or about the country nor the people who elect them into office. Media reports indicate that during the last Financial Year Parliamentarians received a whooping Ksh. 3 Billion in allowances for their local and foreign travel. Governors and MCAs were not been left behind and their local and foreign travel may have consumed even a greater fortune. So far 8 foreign countries have reportedly banned Kenyan MCAs from visiting their capitals due to what has been termed as unbecoming conduct and irritating demands. These new village tyrant are now threatening devolution; the very essence of our new constitutional dispensation. You can imagine all this opulence in a country where there are reports of deaths resulting from starvation in several Counties falling under the Arid & Semi Arid Land (ASAL) regions. Kenyan politicians will unashamedly use all manner of tricks to attain or remain in power without regard to the interests of the electorate and the country. Bribery, war mongering, elimination and intimidation of real and potential opponents, ethnic mobilization and violence are their preferred tools of trade. But soon after every general election, these fellows abandon their electorate and hide in the Nairobi where they resort to making lofty demands on the National Treasury for personal self-aggrandizement. 

A section of Mt. Kenya Legislators

Although political deceit is prevalent in nearly every part of Kenya, the most despicable lot of local politicians is the one from Mt. Kenya region as well as their cousins elected in the Nairobi & Rift Valley Diasporas. Once elected into office, politicians from this region behave like aliens towards their electorate. Whereas I personally may not need any assistance from a Governor, Senator, MP or MCA; every so often I encounter a lot of people who genuinely need their assistance. Needy constituents with pressing issues which require to be raised as questions in either Houses of Parliament or County Assemblies. But their “leaders” are simply inaccessible to the voters. Trying to meet a Governor, Senator or MP from this region is akin to seeking an appointment with the earthly Regent of God. But this is understandable. Over 90% of the fellows elected in this region buy their way into public office. They have little time and no regard for their people. To recoup their election expenses, the greater majority of them spend most of their time and energy engaging in nefarious economic activities (they call them deals) which are injurious to their people and the country. There is palpable suspicion that some of them engage in or protect the trade in illicit killer brews and narcotic drugs in their home region. Whenever deaths occur in the region as a result of people consuming illicit liquor, nearly all these politicians maintain a very telling studious silence. Even worse, very few of them can meaningfully engage in a national discourse relating to Policy & Legislation (somebody recently called them former Councillors; he may have been partially right). Their contribution in debates in the National Assembly and the Senate is lackluster and not worth any mention. This poor performance by Central Kenya Legislator affects the entire country. Despite their large numbers in both Houses of Parliament, their political influence is negligible; near ZERO! They are the sole reason their people from humble backgrounds are being subjected to double discrimination in every sphere of the public service in Kenya. 

Mt. Kenya leaders addressing a Press Conference

It is very sad that 50 years after independence; any charlatan, wheeler-dealer, war monger or drug peddler with money to bribe voters or buy cheap liquor for idle youth can easily be elected into “leadership” in this part of Kenya. Kenya will one day change for good but only when a critical mass of voters changes its mindset. To begin with, the people in Mt Kenya region and its Diasporas where nearly 100 Senators and MPs are voted into office in every general election must change the way they elect their “leaders”. Yes, real change must begin somewhere; the Mountain people need redemption and Kenya’s political “salvation” will start from the Mountain!

Twitter: @DeCaptainCFE

THE MAN-BOY: It Takes a Real Woman Can See Below the Labyrinth!

The man-boy is legion; he bestrides the globe 

With an exterior semblance of a man,

Yet his claim to manhood is restricted;

To a phallic extension, elongated legs and facial hair

His currency is young oomph and lofty idealism;

Of assumed grandeur, hubris and conceit;

Hollow words of grandiosity, peppered with rhetorical love

Dominate his speech; where young females abound

His dressing is fancy; decorated with fictitious articles of bling;

Phoney jewellery, hired automobiles and lavish handsets,  

All primed to impress and charm; unsuspecting maidens.

His antics of sophistry, grandiosity and façade of love;

Attract dumb nubile maidens in droves

Like a hurricane lamp does to moths,

Oblivious that an inadvertent encounter with;

The surface of the “hot” lamp is sure death!

The boy-man is no man but a caricature of masculinity,

An irredeemable coward; afraid of his own shadow

The coward in him arouses a woman’s love,

With no intention of loving her back.

Below the veneer of sophistry and grandiosity

Lies an empty shell; of an emotional swindler 

Whose exploits leave in their wake sundry victims;

Once innocent maiden virgins turned emotional wrecks;

And children with no masculine identity!

Twitter: @DeCaptainCFE

WHEN WE MEET AGAIN; I Will Tell You!

The reminiscence of our initial encounter, many years ago;

In that contraption of a steel conveyor, 

Lingers forever in the deepest corners of my intellect;

I stared in awe, as you heartily narrated;

In flawless urban lingua;

The spicy niceties of your village adventure

It was the onset of youth and;

My maiden voyage to the City of Many Lights,

Sitting beside you, in that face-me contraption;

Our bodies pressed together; how can I forget?

Those fleeting moments when the conveyor tumbled,

Upon thumps, and our legs rubbed;

Sending inexplicable electrical tremours down my spine;

Followed by a gush feeling of goodness, inner peace and contentment

I understood not those momentary tremours;

Upshots of hormonal gymnastics, but how could?

I was then a paragon a paragon of innocence!

I wanted to tell you then, but I kept my peace and held my word,

Lest I display the challenge of inarticulacy; in urban lingua!

Until the ride halted, amidst a sea of humanity and infinite contraptions

And you had to hold my hand and act chaperon,

At the crossing of the hectic boulevard; the legendary “GPO”

The warmth of your palm reviving; the shivers of ecstasy! 

Even then we were not strangers, but children of disparate worlds;

You, the daughter of a money merchant; I, the son of a wood sawyer,

Adherents of the mythical decree, enforced by fictional caste;

That goats and sheep can graze together, but cannot mate!

But not anymore!

I no longer lose my way in the concrete jungle;

Nor crave the attention of urban nobility,

With the kindness of Divinity and astute toil;

I have earned my place and space, in the metropolis

And attained the pretentions and lingua of a townie! 

Time and distance separated us, but I know we will we meet again,

It don’t matter where;

In a Church; workroom; contraption; street; mall or blogsphere and;

Whether you now belong to a beneficiary of proximity;

I will still tell you what I thought then; and still do,

That you’re the fairest I had met yet!

@DeCaptainCFE