Al Shabaab Without Godane is Still a Big & Even More Dangerous Threat!

When the United States Government confirmed that Ahmed Abdi Godane, the former ruthless leader of Al Shabaab; a surrogate of Al Qaeda in Eastern Africa had been killed in an air strike on the militant’s base on 1^st September 2014, authorities in Kenya reacted to the announcement from Pentagon with glee. President Uhuru Kenyatta was quick to point out that the death of Godane would provide some “form of closure” for the victims of the September 21^st 2013 terrorist attack on Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi.

Abdi Ahmed Godane, former Al Shabaab leader

Godane masterminded the gruesome attack which left 70 people including a relative of President Kenyatta dead and hundreds maimed. However, the death of Godane does not in any way indicate the end of Al Shabaab or a reduction of its extremist agenda and murderous activities in the region. If anything, his killing has created new targets for the militants complicating an already delicate security situation in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti and Burundi; all front-line countries which have contributed troops to the African Union (AU) Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).

Al Shabaab has threatened and considers all United Nations (UN), European Union (UN) and US installations, allied companies and organizations operating in Eastern Africa and in particular in AMISOM troop-contributing countries as legitimate targets. Whereas AMISOM and in particular Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) operating in the southern Somalia have considerably reduced the activities of Al Shabaab they are yet to extinguish the militants. When KDF troops dramatically entered Kismayu in September, 2012 in an amphibious landing formation, the militants did not engage them in battle or offer any serious resistance. Instead, the militia abandoned post and fizzled into the civilian population. Thus the dislodgment of Al Shabaab from Kismayu and their other strongholds in Southern Somalia was essentially a dispersal of combatants from active combat and effective command without proper demobilization.

Remains of vehicles destroyed by militants outside of Mpeketoni

These combatants may have joined other groups loosely allied to or with similar ideology to Al Shabaab. Individual militants or small groups thereof may in fact be responsible for the sporadic deadly attacks attributed to Al Shabaab in several locations in East Africa. Battle hardened militants without a central command are bound to act erratically and in isolation due to frustration. They prefer soft targets where they can inflict maximum pain and damage with low risk of contact with conventional forces. The recent violence in Lamu which left over 100 people dead and the isolated fatal attacks on tourists and security officers in Mombasa and neighbouring coastal towns should be seen in this light.

West-gate ruins after the Al Shabaab attack in September

 

Al Shabaab still controls a large part of Somalia. The AMISOM; U.S. and European Union forces (EUFOR) operating in the Eastern Coast and Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden have not been able to dislodge the militants from many of their strongholds. The extremists still hold vital grounds of tactical importance inside and along the coast of Somalia. The fledgling government in Mogadishu is also too weak to effectively deal with remnants of Al Shabaab in urban and rural civilian settlements. There is still a sizeable population of the Somali people who actively support the militia and believe in their ideology. The militia cannot thrive without such support. The death of Godane has not changed this. It is only but a temporary setback to Al Shabaab. He has been replaced by another extremist Sheikh Ahmad Umar (Abu Ubaidah). There is no vacuum in command and their violent activities have continued inside Somalia. The new leadership will now be more cautious and ruthless. The extremists are angry that their leader has been killed and they will seek to avenge his death. As long as Al Shabaab continues to enjoy some form of support from sections of the Somali population, it will definitely carry out revenge attacks on soft targets inside Somalia and neighbouring countries.

Nairobi City Skyline

All citizens and security agencies of Eastern Africa should be alive to this fact. Kenya which has a long and largely unmanned frontier with Somalia and easily corruptible immigration; border control and security officers is the most susceptible to revenge attacks. Al Shabaab has constantly threatened to bring down the symbols of capitalism; skyscrapers and shopping malls in Kenya. This calls for heightened surveillance in all densely populated cities in Kenya and neighbouring countries which host institutions and installations associated with the USA, UN and the EU. One hopes that security agencies in the region will not be caught napping!

Twitter: @DeCaptainCFE