When the United States Government confirmed that Ahmed
Abdi Godane, the former ruthless leader of Al Shabaab; a surrogate of Al Qaeda
in Eastern Africa had been killed in an air strike on the militant’s base on 1st
September 2014, authorities in Kenya reacted to the announcement from Pentagon
with glee. President Uhuru Kenyatta was quick to point out that the death of
Godane would provide some “form of closure” for the victims of the September 21st
2013 terrorist attack on Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi.
Godane masterminded
the gruesome attack which left 70 people including a relative of President
Kenyatta dead and hundreds maimed. However, the death of Godane does not in any
way indicate the end of Al Shabaab or a reduction of its extremist agenda and
murderous activities in the region. If anything, his killing has created new
targets for the militants complicating an already delicate security situation
in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti and Burundi; all front-line
countries which have contributed troops to the African Union (AU) Mission to
Somalia (AMISOM).
Abdi Ahmed Godane, former Al Shabaab leader |
Al Shabaab has threatened and considers all United
Nations (UN), European Union (UN) and US installations, allied companies and
organizations operating in Eastern Africa and in particular in AMISOM
troop-contributing countries as legitimate targets. Whereas AMISOM and in
particular Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) operating in the southern Somalia have
considerably reduced the activities of Al Shabaab they are yet to extinguish
the militants. When KDF troops dramatically entered Kismayu in September, 2012
in an amphibious landing formation, the militants did not engage them in battle
or offer any serious resistance. Instead, the militia abandoned post and fizzled
into the civilian population. Thus the dislodgment of Al Shabaab from Kismayu
and their other strongholds in Southern Somalia was essentially a dispersal of
combatants from active combat and effective command without proper demobilization.
These combatants may have joined other groups loosely allied to or with similar
ideology to Al Shabaab. Individual militants or small groups thereof may in
fact be responsible for the sporadic deadly attacks attributed to Al Shabaab in
several locations in East Africa. Battle hardened militants without a central
command are bound to act erratically and in isolation due to frustration. They
prefer soft targets where they can inflict maximum pain and damage with low
risk of contact with conventional forces. The recent violence in Lamu which
left over 100 people dead and the isolated fatal attacks on tourists and
security officers in Mombasa and neighbouring coastal towns should be seen in
this light.
Remains of vehicles destroyed by militants outside of Mpeketoni |
West-gate ruins after the Al Shabaab attack in September |
Al Shabaab still controls a large part of Somalia. The
AMISOM; U.S. and European Union forces (EUFOR) operating in the Eastern Coast
and Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden have not been able to dislodge the
militants from many of their strongholds. The extremists still hold vital
grounds of tactical importance inside and along the coast of Somalia. The
fledgling government in Mogadishu is also too weak to effectively deal with
remnants of Al Shabaab in urban and rural civilian settlements. There is still
a sizeable population of the Somali people who actively support the militia and
believe in their ideology. The militia cannot thrive without such support. The
death of Godane has not changed this. It is only but a temporary setback to Al
Shabaab. He has been replaced by another extremist Sheikh Ahmad Umar (Abu
Ubaidah). There is no vacuum in command and their violent activities have
continued inside Somalia. The new leadership will now be more cautious and ruthless.
The extremists are angry that their leader has been killed and they will seek
to avenge his death. As long as Al Shabaab continues to enjoy some form of
support from sections of the Somali population, it will definitely carry out
revenge attacks on soft targets inside Somalia and neighbouring countries.
All
citizens and security agencies of Eastern Africa should be alive to this fact.
Kenya which has a long and largely unmanned frontier with Somalia and easily
corruptible immigration; border control and security officers is the most
susceptible to revenge attacks. Al Shabaab has constantly threatened to bring
down the symbols of capitalism; skyscrapers and shopping malls in Kenya. This
calls for heightened surveillance in all densely populated cities in Kenya and
neighbouring countries which host institutions and installations associated
with the USA, UN and the EU. One hopes that security agencies in the region
will not be caught napping!
Nairobi City Skyline |
Twitter:
@DeCaptainCFE